Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jared WalshBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jung homered to left center (427 feet), Seager scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 8García hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored.2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Carter grounded out to second, Taveras scored, Seager to second, Semien to third.2–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 8Seager reached on infield single to pitcher, Heim scored, Semien to second, Taveras to third.2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 8Semien singled to left, Walsh scored, Taveras to second, Heim to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Seager singled to center, Walsh scored, Semien to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3García homered to right center (373 feet), Carter scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Walsh homered to right center (414 feet), Langford scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Swanson homered to left center (389 feet), Morel scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML CHC +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 4.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −26 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +20 Elo | TEX 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 50–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–2 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.