Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger reached on infield single to second, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 9Suzuki singled to left, Mastrobuoni scored and Tauchman scored, Happ to second.8–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 9Happ walked, Hoerner scored, Mastrobuoni to second, Tauchman to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 46–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 35–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 4Langford tripled to center, Carter scored and Semien scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Semien doubled to left, Walsh scored, Carter to third.5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Happ doubled to center, Amaya scored and Tauchman scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Semien singled to left, Carter scored and Knizner scored, Taveras to second.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Morel homered to left center (403 feet), Suzuki scored and Bellinger scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML CHC +115 / TEX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +50 Elo | TEX 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 50–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–3 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.