Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez singled to left, Paredes scored, Palacios to second.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 9Semien reached on infield single to shortstop, Smith scored, Taveras to second.4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Smith singled to center, García scored and Walsh scored, Smith to second.3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Seager homered to right (346 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TEX +105 / TB -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TB: Elo 49.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 306.2 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.221st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 9th of 181–1 | Road vs home | 3–38th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 7–3 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.