Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (356 feet).9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Biggio singled to right, Clement scored, Biggio to second, Schneider to third.9–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 7Clement grounded into fielder's choice to second, Turner scored on throwing error by shortstop Caballero, Clement to second, Varsho out at second.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Schneider homered to left (369 feet), Clement scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Turner homered to left center (400 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Turner doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored and Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 12–1
- 1Arozarena homered to right center (384 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Kirk reached on infield single to second, Guerrero Jr. scored, Turner to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Turner singled to left, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 43.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +43 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.012th of 30 |
| 17th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.710th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–12nd of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 7–9 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.