Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim singled to center, Walsh scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 7Heim singled to right, García scored, Walsh to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Paredes homered to left (363 feet), Ramírez scored and Arozarena scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Arozarena singled to right, Díaz scored, Ramírez to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Díaz singled to center, Caballero scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML TEX +135 / TB -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- TB: Elo 51.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- TEX +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −7 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +12 Elo | TB 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 307.3 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −1.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 181–0 | Road vs home | 2–39th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 7–2 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.