Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith walked, Seager scored, García to second, Carter to third.9–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 49–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 9García hit by pitch, Jankowski scored, Carter to second, Seager to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8García homered to left (428 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 7Siri homered to left center (387 feet), Mead scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Palacios homered to right center (387 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Walsh singled to right, Jung scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Carter scored on throwing error by catcher Pinto, Jung stole third.5–0
- 6Carter scored on throwing error by catcher Pinto, Jung stole third.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Jung singled to center, Seager scored, Carter to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Jung homered to left (387 feet), Semien scored and Carter scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TEX +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +19 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 306.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −0.817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 6–2 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.