Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mastrobuoni scored, Happ to second.8–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 8Tovar doubled to left, Blackmon scored.8–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 38–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 8Blackmon reached on infield single to second, Doyle scored on error and Cave scored on throwing error by second baseman Hoerner.7–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 8Cave doubled to left, Bryant scored and Jones scored, Doyle to third.5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Blackmon doubled to right, Doyle scored, Stallings to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Amaya singled to center, Busch scored, Hoerner scored and Tauchman scored on throwing error by center fielder Doyle, Amaya to second.2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 6McMahon scored on error, Jones safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Morel, Bryant safe at third on error.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Bryant singled to left, Stallings scored, McMahon to second.1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Suzuki homered to left center (390 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Suzuki singled to right, Hoerner scored and Tauchman scored, Suzuki thrown out at second, Happ to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Amaya hit sacrifice fly to center, Swanson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML COL +185 / CHC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.9%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −3 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Luke Little (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +77 Elo | CHC 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 6.26th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +1.89th of 30 |
| 18th of 181–5 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–5 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–6 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.