Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Garrett CooperBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bellinger homered to right (425 feet), Suzuki scored.2–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 7Toglia homered to right center (421 feet), Díaz scored.2–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 6Cooper homered to right center (401 feet), Morel scored and Happ scored.0–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 4Happ singled to right, Bellinger scored, Swanson to second.0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Madrigal doubled to right, Happ scored and Swanson scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Morel homered to left (379 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Madrigal singled to left, Cooper scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Suzuki homered to center (414 feet), Hoerner scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML COL +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +100 Elo | CHC 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.4 | Runs allowed | 5.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 18th of 181–4 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–5 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.