Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 6Moniak and Rengifo scored, Rendon safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Devers, Neto safe at third.1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Duran singled to left, Wong scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML BOS -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 49.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 5.726th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–2 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.