Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Aaron HicksBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz homered to center (399 feet).3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Ward singled to left, Hicks scored, Trout to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Hicks singled to center, Neto scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Hicks homered to right (365 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML LAA +120 / MIA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 55.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +40 Elo | MIA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 26th of 307.3 | Runs allowed | 7.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −3.427th of 30 |
| 10th of 182–2 | Road vs home | 0–515th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.