Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz singled to right, Allen scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Rooker homered to center (400 feet).2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Allen singled to left, Butler scored, Soderstrom to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 6Fletcher scored on Miller wild pitch, Neto to third on wild pitch by Miller.0–7
- 6Fletcher scored on Miller wild pitch, Neto to third on wild pitch by Miller.0–7
- 5Escobar singled to right, O'Hoppe scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 5Drury homered to right center (385 feet), Neto scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Adell reached on infield single to first, Drury scored on throwing error by first baseman Noda, O'Hoppe safe at third on error.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Grichuk homered to left center (409 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Drury homered to left (401 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 59%
- Fair odds
- LAA -130
- OAK +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Carson Fulmer (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +64 Elo | LAA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3024–56 | Road vs home | 37–4323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 6–6 LAA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.