Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gelof singled to center, Soderstrom scored, Ruiz to third.7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Langeliers homered to right center (399 feet), Noda scored and Gelof scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Ruiz scored on a balk, Gelof to second, Noda to third.3–3
- 8Ruiz scored on a balk, Gelof to second on a balk, Noda to third on a balk.3–3
- 8Gelof singled to right, Allen scored, Noda to second, Ruiz to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7O'Hoppe homered to center (407 feet), Drury scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to right, Schanuel scored, Drury to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Gelof homered to left (402 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 59%
- Fair odds
- LAA -132
- OAK +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAA: Andrew Wantz: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +65 Elo | LAA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3023–56 | Road vs home | 37–4223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 5–6 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.