Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Nick GordonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell scored on a balk, Schanuel to second on a balk.7–4
- 9Adell scored on a balk, Schanuel to second on a balk.7–4
- 9Adell singled to center, O'Hoppe scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Ward grounded out to second, Rendon scored, Trout to second, Schanuel to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Trout homered to center (473 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Schanuel homered to right (375 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Trout homered to left (412 feet).2–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Hicks grounded out to first, Ward scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Gordon doubled to center, Burger scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, J. Sánchez to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bell scored, Burger to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML LAA -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- LAA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −2 | LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 1.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +8 Elo | MIA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 308.3 | Runs allowed | 7.828th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.7 | Margin | −3.526th of 30 |
| 11th of 161–2 | Road vs home | 0–413th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–3 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.