Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hoppe singled to left, Drury scored, Schanuel to second.4–13
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–13
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–13
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–13
- 9Ward scored on error, Schanuel safe at first on error by pitcher Baumann, Drury safe at third on error.3–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–13
- 9Ward singled to right, Adell scored.2–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–13
- 8Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to center, McCann scored, Cowser to third.1–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–13
- 6Santander homered to right center (359 feet), Henderson scored and Rutschman scored.1–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 6Henderson tripled to center, Westburg scored and Urías scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Westburg singled to center, Hays scored and Mullins scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6Mullins doubled to right, O'Hearn scored, Hays to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Hays singled to left, Mountcastle scored, O'Hearn to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML LAA +150 / BAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -161
- LAA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +71 Elo | BAL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3035–46 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–6 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.