Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rengifo scored on error and Schanuel scored on throwing error by second baseman Mateo, O'Hoppe out at second.3–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 7Mullins homered to center (403 feet), Hays scored and O'Hearn scored.1–11
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 31–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 6Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Mateo scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Santander homered to left center (431 feet), Rutschman scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 2Santander hit sacrifice fly to center, Rutschman scored.1–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Rutschman singled to center, Urías scored and Mateo scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Westburg singled to center, Rutschman scored, Santander to third.1–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Santander grounded into fielder's choice to third, Henderson scored, Mountcastle out at second, Rutschman to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Trout homered to center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 64%
- ML LAA +165 / BAL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 64.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -177
- LAA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +4 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +101 Elo | BAL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3035–46 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–5 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.