Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting0-2, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 2Henderson walked, Westburg scored, Mateo to second, Mullins to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 44–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2O'Hoppe to home on throwing error by catcher McCann, Neto to third on error.4–0
- 2O'Hoppe to home on throwing error by catcher McCann, Neto to third on error.4–0
- 2O'Hoppe to home on throwing error by catcher McCann, Neto to third on error.4–0
- 2Neto singled to left, Rengifo scored, O'Hoppe to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Ward homered to left (399 feet), Schanuel scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML LAA +120 / BAL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +76 Elo | BAL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3035–46 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–7 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.