Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-3
- Kyle MullerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to second, Story scored, O'Neill out at second, Casas to third.9–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 3Story doubled to left, Devers scored and Duran scored.8–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Duran singled to left, Valdez scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Rafaela hit sacrifice fly to right, Yoshida scored, Valdez to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3Valdez reached on infield single to first, O'Neill scored on throwing error by first baseman Noda, Valdez to second, Yoshida safe at third on error.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Rafaela hit sacrifice fly to right, Yoshida scored on error and Valdez scored on throwing error by right fielder Butler.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Casas singled to center, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -160 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- OAK +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +36 Elo | BOS 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 2.827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 7.326th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −4.529th of 30 |
| 10th of 182–2 | Road vs home | 1–311th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.