Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- David FryBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-4
- Alex WoodPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fry hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 9Ramírez tripled to center, Kwan scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Rocchio doubled to left, Hedges scored and Giménez scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Hedges reached on infield single to shortstop, Freeman scored on throwing error by shortstop Allen and Fry scored, Giménez to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Giménez singled to center, J. Naylor scored, Freeman to second, Fry to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Freeman doubled to center, Fry scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML CLE -140 / OAK +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -128
- OAK +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 3.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 25th of 3034–47 | Road vs home | 26–5530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 5–1 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.