Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4
- Triston McKenziePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Beau BrieskePitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kelly singled to left, Ibañez scored and McKinstry scored, Baddoo to second, Kelly to second, Baddoo safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Ibañez singled to left, Carpenter scored and Vierling scored, McKinstry to third.0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to center, P. Meadows scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Baddoo tripled to right, McKinstry scored and Ibañez scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Vierling tripled to center, Cabrera scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- CLE +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Will Vest: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 24th of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 35–4425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–7 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.