Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4
- Jonathan BowlanPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Miguel CabreraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rogers homered to left center (376 feet), Nevin scored.0–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Ibañez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Torkelson scored, Cabrera out at second, Carpenter to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Cabrera walked, Vierling scored, Carpenter to second, Torkelson to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 40–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Nevin homered to right (340 feet), Cabrera scored and Ibañez scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Cabrera homered to right center (397 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | KC: Jonathan Bowlan (no track record yet) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +63 Elo | DET 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 3023–56 | Road vs home | 33–4325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–8 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.