Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Loftin singled to left, Waters scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 32–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 22–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 8McKinstry singled to left, Nevin scored, McKinstry thrown out at second, Short to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Ibañez singled to center, Carpenter scored, Nevin to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8P. Meadows homered to right center (369 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Baddoo homered to right center (443 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Torkelson doubled to left, P. Meadows scored and Kelly scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 6Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- KC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +55 Elo | DET 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 3023–55 | Road vs home | 32–4325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–7 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.