Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson homered to right center (391 feet).7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 4P. Meadows tripled to right, Báez scored and Baddoo scored.7–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 37–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 17–2
- 3Straw singled to right, Bo Naylor scored on fielding error by right fielder Carpenter, Straw to second.7–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3Freeman homered to left (415 feet), Laureano scored and Giménez scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–2
- 2McKinstry homered to right (389 feet), Vierling scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Bo Naylor homered to right (404 feet), Rocchio scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Rocchio doubled to center, Laureano scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −20 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–45 | Road vs home | 35–4325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–7 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.