Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sawyer Gipson-LongPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torkelson homered to left (388 feet), Vierling scored and Ibañez scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Ibañez singled to right, P. Meadows scored, Vierling to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Vierling singled to center, Kelly scored and Short scored, P. Meadows to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7P. Meadows singled to right, Lipcius scored, Kelly to second, Short to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Massey homered to right (400 feet), Melendez scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Olivares singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Massey to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- KC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Sawyer Gipson-Long: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 29th of 3023–57 | Road vs home | 34–4325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–9 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.