Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Vierling homered to left (414 feet), Carpenter scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Freeman homered to left (392 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Rocchio grounded out to shortstop, Laureano scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Ibañez singled to center, Vierling scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Báez hit a ground rule double, Baddoo scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Carpenter singled to left, P. Meadows scored, Torkelson to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | +6 | CLE: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +52 Elo | DET 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3034–46 | Road vs home | 36–4424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–8 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.