Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Neill homered to right center (394 feet).6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Moore homered to center (409 feet), Haniger scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Wong singled to right, Rafaela scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Casas grounded into fielder's choice to second, Duran scored, Story out at second, Devers to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Haniger homered to right (372 feet), Raleigh scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to third, O'Neill scored, Yoshida safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Rojas.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Devers homered to left center (400 feet), Valdez scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML BOS +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- BOS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 16th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 45–3610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.