Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fry singled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.12–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 9Ramírez singled to center, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.11–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 310–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 7Kwan homered to right center (424 feet).10–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 6Freeman singled to left, Ramírez scored, Brennan to second.9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 6Fry hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 37–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 5Hedges doubled to left, Arias scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 5Fry scored, Arias safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Allen.6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Kwan singled to right, Rocchio scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Hedges hit sacrifice fly to left, Arias scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML CLE -125 / OAK +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 3.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −1 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 1.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +66 Elo | CLE 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 25th of 3034–47 | Road vs home | 26–5530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 7–1 OAK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.