Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- J.D. DavisBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to left, Brown scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Giménez doubled to right, Kwan scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Davis homered to center (414 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 35–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Allen scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Brennan singled to left, Giménez scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Giménez doubled to right, Kwan scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Davis homered to center (410 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1J. Naylor scored on a balk, Freeman to second on a balk.3–0
- 1J. Naylor scored on a balk, Freeman to second on a balk.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -130 / OAK +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +40 Elo | CLE 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 25th of 3034–47 | Road vs home | 26–5530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 6–1 OAK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.