Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Pablo ReyesBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rodríguez singled to right, Rojas scored, Crawford to second.3–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 10Crawford grounded into fielder's choice to second, Raley scored, Rojas third.3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Raley singled to left, France scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 10Yoshida singled to center, McGuire scored, O'Neill to third.3–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 10Reyes singled to center, Rafaela scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Reyes grounded out to shortstop, Rafaela scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Haniger singled to center, Crawford scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML BOS +130 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 16th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 45–3610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.