Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Toro walked, Hernaiz scored, Butler to second, Langeliers to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 43–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8J. Naylor singled to right, Ramírez scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Ramírez reaches on fielding error by shortstop Allen, Giménez scored and Ramírez safe at second on error.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Arias grounded out to second, Florial scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Bleday singled to right, Ruiz scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Brown singled to center, Bleday scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Bleday tripled to center, Ruiz scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / OAK +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +35 Elo | CLE 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 308.7 | Runs scored | 2.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 8.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+6.3 | Margin | −6.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 153–0 | Road vs home | 0–311th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 8–1 OAK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.