Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-4
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6McGuire grounded out to pitcher, Yoshida scored, Abreu to second, O'Neill to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Valdez homered to right (376 feet), Casas scored and O'Neill scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Rojas singled to right, Haniger scored, France to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2O'Neill homered to left (364 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML BOS -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −21 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 3.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–11st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–5 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.