Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11O'Neill grounded into double play, third to second to first, Abreu scored, McGuire out at second.5–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Story singled to right, Duran scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Bleday homered to center (409 feet), Noda scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Reyes singled to center, O'Neill scored, Reyes to second, Devers to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Langeliers homered to left center (386 feet), Davis scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Duran singled to center, Casas scored, Duran out stretching at second, Wong to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Story doubled to center, Devers scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML BOS -155 / OAK +130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 3.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 2.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 7.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −5.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 183–2 | Road vs home | 1–413th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | — |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–2 OAK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.