Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- A.J. PukPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ward homered to center (410 feet).10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 7Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to right, Adell scored, Neto to third.9–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 7Neto doubled to left, Sanó scored and O'Hoppe scored, Adell to third.8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Adell hit sacrifice fly to right, Sanó scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5O'Hoppe singled to left, Drury scored, Sanó to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 3Burger singled to right, Arraez scored, Bell to second.4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Bell singled to center, García scored, Arraez to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Hicks scored on error and Ward scored on error, Drury safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Bruján, Drury safe at second on error.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Drury grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Trout scored, Ward out at second.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Ward singled to right, Rengifo scored, Trout to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML LAA -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −9 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: A.J. Puk: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +42 Elo | MIA 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 6.825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.8 | Margin | −3.228th of 30 |
| 7th of 183–2 | Road vs home | 0–616th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 0–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 0–6 |
| Favorite | — | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.