Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting4-4
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Athletics- J.D. DavisBatting2-4
- Ross StriplingPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Valdez hit sacrifice fly to right, Casas scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML BOS -170 / OAK +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -154
- OAK +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 3.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +2 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +75 Elo | BOS 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 2.528th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 7.228th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −4.729th of 30 |
| 5th of 184–2 | Road vs home | 1–514th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | — |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–2 OAK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.