Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Neill homered to left (382 feet).8–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 8Duran homered to center (409 feet).7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Sanó singled to left, Ward scored, Drury to third.6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 7Valdez hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Neill scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 6O'Hoppe homered to center (407 feet), Ward scored, Drury scored and Sanó scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Duran singled to right, Rafaela scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Schanuel walked, Sanó scored, Rendon to second, O'Hoppe to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 44–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2McGuire homered to right center (392 feet), Rafaela scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Casas homered to center (397 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +12 Elo | BOS 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.210th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 5.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.