Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Reese McGuireBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thaiss scored and Rengifo to second on wild pitch by Anderson.12–2
- 9Thaiss scored on Anderson wild pitch, Rengifo to second on wild pitch by Anderson.12–2
- 9McGuire singled to center, Valdez scored, Rafaela to second.12–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 9Rafaela singled to center, O'Neill scored and Yoshida scored, Valdez to second.11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 9Valdez walked, Duran scored, Yoshida to second, O'Neill to third.9–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 49–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 8Trout homered to left (372 feet).8–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 8McGuire grounded out to first, Rafaela scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 6McGuire homered to right (376 feet), Casas scored and Yoshida scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Yoshida singled to center, O'Neill scored, Casas to second.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3O'Neill homered to left center (402 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Devers homered to center (435 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 47.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +24 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 1.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +19 Elo | LAA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.913th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.4 | Runs allowed | 5.123rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–2 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–5 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.