Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Austin ShentonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle singled to right, Jones scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Díaz singled to right, Cave scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Paredes singled to left, B. Lowe scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Siri singled to left, Shenton scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Shenton doubled to right, Caballero scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TB: Elo 58.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.8 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +61 Elo | TB 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 8.130th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.1 | Margin | −3.730th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–1 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.