Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz singled to right, Rortvedt scored and Rosario scored, Siri to third.8–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Rosario singled to left, Ramírez scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Ramírez doubled to right, Palacios scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 8Paredes homered to left (364 feet).4–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Rortvedt doubled to right, Palacios scored and Ramírez scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Doyle homered to right (360 feet), Tovar scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Toglia homered to left (403 feet), Tovar scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Díaz singled to center, Rodgers scored, Jones to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2McMahon homered to left (369 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Paredes singled to right, B. Lowe scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML TB -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TB: Elo 59.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 6.7 – 6.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 13
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +64 Elo | TB 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 8.130th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −3.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.