Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting1-4
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ramírez scored, Arozarena out at second.1–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 20–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 8Moniak singled to right, Rendon scored.0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 7Rengifo singled to right, Sanó scored, Drury to third.0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Ward singled to right, Rendon scored and Moniak scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Trout homered to center (423 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Ward singled to left, Trout scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Trout tripled to right, Rendon scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -150 / LAA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 55.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.324th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–2 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.