Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Adell homered to right center (386 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Neto singled to left, Thaiss scored, Neto to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Caballero homered to left (423 feet).4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Paredes hit sacrifice fly to center, Palacios scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Díaz scored on Soriano wild pitch and Arozarena scored on Soriano wild pitch, Palacios to third on wild pitch by Soriano.2–0
- 1Díaz scored on Soriano wild pitch and Arozarena scored on Soriano wild pitch, Palacios to third on wild pitch by Soriano.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- TB: Elo 53.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.719th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–3 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.