Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey GalloBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Giants- Nick AhmedBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wade Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Ahmed scored, Fitzgerald out at home on runner's fielder's choice.1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Ahmed singled to center, Chapman scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Conforto singled to right, Fitzgerald scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Flores hit sacrifice fly to center, Ahmed scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Slater reached on infield single to shortstop, Fitzgerald scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Fitzgerald singled to left, Ahmed scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Ahmed tripled to center, Chapman scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Gallo homered to right (356 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 64%
- ML WSH +165 / SF -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SF: Elo 54.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +31 Elo | SF 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–1 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.