Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Emmanuel RiveraBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna homered to center (446 feet).8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 7Rivera singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, García to second.7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 7Arcia reached on infield single to shortstop, Ozuna scored, Harris II to second, Duvall to third.7–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Harris II reached on infield single to first, Olson scored, Duvall to second, Ozuna to third.6–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Ozuna singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Albies scored, Olson to second.5–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7Olson walked, Arcia scored, Albies to second, Acuña Jr. to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 43–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML ATL -189 / MIA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.6 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −2.329th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 0–729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 3–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | — | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2–1 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–4 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.