Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Nick GordonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman homered to center (420 feet), Siani scored.10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 8Burger hit sacrifice fly to left, Bethancourt scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 8Bell grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gordon scored, Arraez to second, Bethancourt safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Donovan.9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Burger doubled to left, Arraez scored on error, Burger safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Winn.8–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Gorman homered to center (400 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 37–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 2Bell grounded out to first, Arraez scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 1Gordon homered to right (397 feet), Anderson scored and De La Cruz scored.6–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (412 feet), Arraez scored and Bell scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML MIA +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 56.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +12 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.9 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 0–9 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 0–9 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 3–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 3–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–6 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.