Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell singled to center, Arraez scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Herrera reached on infield single to second, Donovan scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Walker scored, Winn to second on pickoff error by pitcher Rogers.0–2
- 4Walker scored, Winn to second on pickoff error by pitcher Rogers.0–2
- 4Walker doubled to left, Herrera scored, Gorman to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML MIA +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- STL: Elo 54.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +29 Elo | STL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 0–8 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 0–8 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–1 | 3–3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–1 | 3–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–5 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.