Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-2, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Winn tripled to right, Burleson scored.5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Burleson singled to left, Gorman scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Gorman doubled to right, Herrera scored and Arenado scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Herrera singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to second.5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Anderson scored on Liberatore wild pitch.5–3
- 6Anderson scored on Liberatore wild pitch.5–3
- 5Arenado doubled to left, Scott II scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 14–2
- 5Goldschmidt grounded out to third, Siani scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Burger homered to left (398 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Bell homered to center (410 feet), Arraez scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML MIA +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- STL: Elo 54.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +33 Elo | STL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 29th of 307.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.9 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 0–7 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 0–7 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | — |
| Underdog | — | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 2–3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 2–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–4 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.