Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Max FriedPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored.8–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 8Acuña Jr. singled to right, Kelenic scored, Acuña Jr. safe at second on throwing error by right fielder McCarthy.8–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 7Harris II singled to right, Olson scored, Ozuna to second.8–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 7Olson singled to right, Riley scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 5Ozuna homered to left center (401 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Riley scored.8–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 5McCarthy doubled to right, Grichuk scored, Moreno to third.8–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 5Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Suárez scored, Grichuk safe at second on error by second baseman Albies, Grichuk safe at third on error.7–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Harris II tripled to right, Ozuna scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Ozuna doubled to right, Olson scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 1Marte doubled to right, McCarthy scored, Alexander to third.6–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 1McCarthy singled to right, Suárez scored, Moreno to second.5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML ARI +165 / ATL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- ARI +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +6 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 7.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.35th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +3.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–4 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.