New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Barrosa singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker to second.6–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 11Judge doubled to center, Torres scored.6–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 11Berti scored on a balk, Torres to second on a balk.5–4
- 11Berti scored on a balk, Torres to second on a balk.5–4
- 10Carroll reached on infield single to shortstop, McCarthy scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Barrosa scored on error, Perdomo safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Perdomo safe at second on error.4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 10Verdugo homered to right (395 feet), Volpe scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Marte homered to left center (433 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Judge homered to right center (396 feet), Soto scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Alexander homered to left (371 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / ARI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 43.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +7 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +42 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 6.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.25th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +3.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 185–1 | Road vs home | 4–23rd of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 0–5–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–5–1 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–2 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.