New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-5
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stanton homered to left center (419 feet).7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Cabrera singled to center, Volpe scored and Wells scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Wells reached on bunt single to pitcher, Verdugo scored on throwing error by pitcher Mushinski, Wells to first on throwing error by pitcher Mushinski, Wells to second, Volpe to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Volpe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rizzo scored on error, Verdugo safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Peña, Verdugo safe at third on error.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Soto walked, Wells scored, Torres to second, Cabrera to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 42–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Cabrera singled to left, Volpe scored, Wells to second.1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Bregman singled to center, Altuve scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML NYY +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −7 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +54 Elo | HOU 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 39–4219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 6–2 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.