New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Cabrera homered to right center (381 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Volpe walked, Torres scored, Rizzo to second, Soto to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 43–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Rizzo hit by pitch, Cabrera scored, Soto to second, Torres to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Soto singled to right, Trevino scored, Torres to second, Cabrera to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Meyers homered to left (415 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Diaz singled to right, J. Abreu scored, McCormick to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1McCormick singled to center, Alvarez scored and Tucker scored, J. Abreu to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML NYY +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- NYY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +36 Elo | HOU 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 39–4219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 5–2 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.