New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Witt Jr. homered to left (423 feet), Isbel scored.5–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–10
- 6Wells grounded out to second, Judge scored.5–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–10
- 5Pereira grounded out to third, Peraza scored.4–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 4Wells homered to right (375 feet), Judge scored and Torres scored.3–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 3Perez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. out at second.0–10
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–9
- 1Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Isbel scored.0–9
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 1Garcia singled to center, Porter scored, Isbel to third.0–8
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–7
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 1Isbel doubled to right, Loftin scored and Duffy scored, Porter to third.0–7
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Duffy singled to center, Velázquez scored, Loftin to second.0–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Olivares homered to left (401 feet), Perez scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −17 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +56 Elo | NYY 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 31–4728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–0 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.