New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torres singled to center, Florial scored and LeMahieu scored, Judge to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Florial singled to center, Higashioka scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pereira singled to center, Bauers scored, Cabrera to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Cabrera singled to center, Torres scored, Bauers to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Perez homered to left (389 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Velázquez singled to left, Garcia scored, Melendez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Steven Cruz: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +29 Elo | NYY 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 32–4728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–1 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.